The Week of December 16 – December 20, 2019

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.
William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).
William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

Macro Update

• Canadian October retail sales unexpectedly tumbled 1.2%, against a consensus estimate of a 0.5% gain. Excluding autos, gas station sales and building materials, core sales fell 0.6%. This is a disappointing report following the poor November employment report. If the trend is slowing, Canada is behind the schedule in reporting them. These are only October numbers.
• Canadian October wholesale sales fell 1.1%, after a 1.0% gain in September.
• Canadian October manufacturing sales fell 0.7%, after a 0.2% drop in September.
• Canadian November consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.2% y/y, compared to 1.9% in October. The rise is mostly off depressed energy prices a year ago. Core measures were a tad firmer as well; the ‘median’ core inflation rate rose to 2.4% y/y from 2.3% prior.
• Canadian November new housing price index fell 0.1%, after a 0.2% gain in October.
• Canada November Teranet house price index rose 1.4% y/y; vs a 1.0% increase in October.
• U.S. November ‘personal consumption expenditure’ (PCE) core price deflator (the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge) came in at 1.6% y/y; October was revised higher from 1.6% to 1.7% y/y.
• U.S. November industrial production rose 1.1% versus a 0.9% drop in October. Manufacturing production gained 1.1% versus a 0.7% drop in October. These gains are less impressive when their low bases are put into context. Manufacturing output fell in three of the last four months and was down in seven out of the first ten months this year. Factory output is still 0.7% lower than a year ago. Capacity utilization is 77.3% versus 76.6% prior.
• U.S. Q3 GDP unrevised at 2.1%.
• U.S. November existing home sales fell 1.7%, after a 1.5% gain in October.
• U.S. November housing starts rose 3.2%; Building permits rose 1.4%.
• Eurozone November core consumer price index (CPI) stayed at 1.3% y/y.