Market Commentary
For the third quarter of 2024, the Caldwell North American Fund (CNA or Fund) gained 3.5% versus a gain of 7.5% for the Fund’s benchmark, which comprises an equal blend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index. From a sector standpoint Real Estate, Utilities, and Financials were relative outperformers, whereas Energy, Communication Services, and Information Technology underperformed.
Portfolio Commentary
Top contributors to the Fund’s performance in the third quarter of 2024 were Royal Bank of Cananda (RY), Element Fleet Management (EFN), and Motorola Solutions (MSI). RY delivered strong earnings in the recent quarter with all its segments exceeding expectations. The strength was led by particularly robust results in its Capital Markets segment, reflecting robust corporate and investment banking revenue driven by high municipal banking activities, debt originations, and loan syndications in the U.S. EFN rerated higher as the company delivered strong earnings that exceeded expectations. Furthermore, its acquisition of Autofleet was well received by investors, as it should enable the company to accelerate its digitization and automation plans, which would unlock access to new revenue streams for the company. MSI reported an impressive quarter with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations driven by a strong demand backdrop as well as an improved supply environment for Land Mobile Radio, which led to greater product shipments. The company also raised its forward guidance as their management feels confident regarding the demand trends in the area of public safety, which is being prioritized at all levels of the government resulting in a favourable funding environment. Over 95% of the company’s backlog consists of government customers that carry a low cancellation risk, as they are not allowed to double-order.
During the third quarter of 2024, the Fund initiated positions in ANSYS (ANSS), and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). ANSS engages in the development and marketing of engineering simulation software and services. The company is a market leader in simulation and has agreed to be acquired by Synopsys, which is a leading provider of Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools. The merger is set to create a leader in chip design by making the development process more efficient and less susceptible to errors. The company is currently trading at an attractive discount to its agreed acquisition value. TMO is a global leader in providing analytical instruments, reagents, consumables, software, and services for research and diagnostics. It serves the research, academic, government, industrial, and healthcare sectors, supporting scientific innovation and global health advancements. The company possesses robust growth prospects driven by the expanding research and development budgets of pharmaceutical companies. Furthermore, vendor consolidation supports continued market share gains for the company.
Looking Forward
Inflation, interest rates, and the risk of recession continue to be the most prevalent themes in 2024. Macroeconomic forces are still the most dominant factors driving the markets. If inflation remains at a manageable level, central banks may be able to orchestrate a soft landing for the economy, avoiding a typical recession. However, if inflation elevates to undesirable levels again, a harder landing may be necessary where interest rates strain consumer spending, investments, and corporate profits, ultimately resulting in a classic recession with increased unemployment. While economic uncertainty is a predominant risk in the markets today, we remind investors that one of the Fund’s investment principles is to protect capital by seeking reasonable valuations. To that end, we think the Fund’s value tilt positions it well for the uncertain environment. History has taught us that crisis creates new opportunities and for those investors with multi-year investment horizons, we will continue to manage portfolios based on our investment principles of protecting and growing our investors’ capital through discounted valuations, strong balance sheets, good management teams and attractive business environments.
Series F, total return CAD terms
Standard performance as at September 30, 2024:
Caldwell North American Fund Series F: 1 Year: 23.7%, 3 year: 9.9%, 5 year: 10.7%, Since Inception (August 8, 2014): 7.5%.
50% S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index and 50% S&P500 Total Return Index: 1 Year: 31.6%, 3 year: 12.0%, 5 year: 13.8%, Since Inception (August 8, 2014): 11.9%.
All data is as of June 30, 2024 sourced from Capital IQ, unless otherwise specified.
First purchased: RY 6/28/2022, EFN 1/15/2020, MSI 4/27/2022.
The information contained herein provides general information about the Fund at a point in time. Investors are strongly encouraged to consult with a financial advisor and review the Simplified Prospectus and Fund Facts documents carefully prior to making investment decisions about the Fund. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Rates of returns, unless otherwise indicated, are the historical annual compounded returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed; their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.
Publication date: October 25, 2024