The Week of November 18 – November 22, 2019

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.
William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).
William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

Macro Update

• U.S. and China relations deteriorated last week over U.S. naval presence in the South China Sea and the Hong Kong Democracy Act, soon to be presented to the U.S. President to sign. December 15, when the next round of additional tariffs are set to take effect, is drawing near. At the same time, the South China Morning Post reported that agricultural orders and intellectual property still big barriers to trade deal.
• Canada September retail sales fell 0.1%. August was revised up from a 0.1% decline to a 0.1% gain. However, September core sales (sales excluding autos, gas stations and building materials) were almost flat from August.
• Canada September manufacturing sales fell 0.2%, from a 0.8% gain in August. This will be a drag on GDP.
• Canada October Teranet house price index rose 1.0% after a 0.7% increase in September, based on a y/y basis.
• According to Statistics Canada, the household savings rate – the percentage of disposable income left after spending – fell to 1.7%, close to its lowest point in sixty years.
• Released last week, the FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) minutes for the October 29/30 meeting suggested there was more harmony among voting members and that led to analysts claiming the Fed might have finished cutting interest rates. However, much has happened since then.
• U.S. October housing starts rose 3.8%, after a 7.9% drop in September. Building permits rose 5.0%, after a 2.4% drop in September. Existing home sales increased 1.9%, from a 2.2% decline in September.
• U.S. NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) housing market index eased to 70 from 71. With tepid growth in household income, further upside to the U.S. housing market recovery might be limited.
• Atlanta Federal Reserve to revise its Q4 GDP forecast down from 1.0% to 0.3%. ‘Real gross private domestic investment’ (business capital spending) was revised lower from an expected drop of 0.23% to a much larger drop of 4.4%. ‘Personal consumption expenditures’ were also revised down from 2.1% to 1.7%.