William's Weekly Economic Recap

The Week of November 4 – November 8, 2019

November 11, 2019

weekly update


William’s Weekly Economic Recap
for the Week of November 4 – November 8, 2019 (view as PDF)

William Chin Head shot
William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.
William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).
William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

Macro Update
  • Statistics Canada reported that overall employment fell by 1,800 in October. Full-time jobs fell 16,100; part-time jobs rose 14,300. Small decline in ‘self employed’ was offset by a similar increase in government hiring. Private sector jobs were little changed for the second month in a row. The unemployment rate is steady at 5.5%, so is the participation rate at 65.7%. The softness in the private sector is a concern.
  • After the Keystone pipeline oil spill, which leaked almost 1.5 million litres of crude oil in North Dakota, the damage to the integrity and credibility of the pipeline is severe. Subsequently, the price of Western Canada Select fell below US$35 per barrel at one point last week, even while the broader crude market was enjoying an up day. The spread against the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged to over US$20, the widest in a while.
  • Canada September imports fell 1.3%; exports fell 1.7%.
  • U.S. September imports fell 1.7%; exports fell 0.9%.
  • U.S. ISM (Institute for Supply Management) nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 54.7 from 52.6 prior. Notably, inside the report, both export and import orders fell.
  • China October exports fell 0.9%, less-than-expected. Imports fell 6.4%, also less-than-expected. Exports to U.S. fell 6.8%; imports from U.S. fell 21.5%. Still, falling trade volume is both an indication, and also a contributing factor to slower global growth going forward.
  • Despite frequent conflicting headlines on rolling back of tariffs, what is clear towards the end of the past week is that there does not seem to be any quick agreement between U.S. and China on trade.
  • Bucking the recent weak trend, German exports rose 4.6% in September, as a rebound in trade to other Eurozone countries, the UK and US offset a decline in China. German imports rose 2.3% in September. Both numbers are a welcome recovery, but the China slowdown still looms large.
  • Eurozone October manufacturing and services ‘purchasing managers indices’ rose modestly from September levels but still deep in contraction territory.
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