The Week of October 14 – October 18, 2019

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.
William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).
William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

Macro Update

• A limited U.S./China trade deal was indeed the outcome. It is far from a ‘sweeping deal’ that the U.S. wanted.
• Canada September consumer price index fell 0.4%. The year-over-year number is steady at 1.9%. Core measures are steady at around 2.0% y/y.
• Canada August manufacturing sales gained 0.8% after a 1.3% drop in July.
• Canada September Teranet house price index rose 0.7%, versus a 0.6% increase in August, all y/y.
• The U.S. consumer might finally be slowing down. U.S. September retail sales fell 0.3%; August was revised higher from a 0.4% gain to 0.6%, mitigating the damage. The ‘control group’ (core sales) came in flat for the month, after a 0.3% increase in August.
• U.S. September industrial production fell 0.4%. Manufacturing production also fell 0.4%. A 4.2% decline in autos was the largest since January. Production of primary metals, machinery and plastics also fell.
• U.S. NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) rose to 71 from 68 prior. Housing sector recovery is well on its way.
• The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book – anecdotal account of economic conditions across the 12 Fed districts – described the economy expanding at a “slight to modest pace” (down from “modest” in the prior report). Also, “Business contacts mostly expect the economic expansion to continue; however, many lowered their outlooks for growth in the coming 6 to 12 months.”
• China’s deceleration continues. Q3 GDP growth slowed to 6.0% from 6.2% in Q2, the slowest in 27 years. “Fixed Asset Investments” slowed to 5.4% from 5.5% in Q2. Industrial production in September was better-than-feared, posting a 5.8% gain vs a 4.4% gain in August. All numbers y/y.