William's Weekly Economic Recap

The Week of September 16-20, 2019

September 23, 2019
William Chin

weekly update

William’s Weekly Economic Recap
for the Week of September 16-20, 2019 (view as PDF)

William Chin Head shot
William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.
William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).
William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

Macro Update
  • Last week’s attacks on Saudi oil production facilities removed about half of Saudi’s production capacity, or about 5% of world output. U.S. and Japan quickly announced they are ready to release their strategic oil reserves if needed. Other producers are also eyeing to fill the void. Crude oil prices spiked 12% or so initially but eventually gave back half the gains. Canadian producers will benefit from the higher prices but given export facilities are already running at full capacity, they will not be able to increase their output. Also, oil prices near these levels are extremely attractive for cash-strapped, debt-laden U.S. oil companies to hedge, thus, likely capping future gains.
  • Fedex CEO warned, after their earnings report, that global demand is slowing down, citing in particular the impact of trade wars.
  • China August retail sales and industrial production disappointed again.
  • Canada July manufacturing sales fell 1.3%. June was revised lower to a 1.4% decline. Inventories have been rising.
  • Canada July retail sales rose 0.4%; June was revised lower from flat to -0.1%. Excluding autos and gas stations, sales were down 0.1%, a sharp drop from the 1.7% gain in June.
  • Canada August existing home sales rose 1.4%.
  • The Federal Reserve delivered the expected quarter point rate cut last week, but market expectations for further cuts diminished somewhat due to a more fractured FOMC (“Federal Reserve Open Market Committee”).
  • NAHB (“National Association of Home Builders”) U.S. housing market activity index rose to 68 from 66 prior. U.S. housing data have improved recently.
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Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

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