William's Weekly Economic Recap

The Week of September 30-October 4, 2019

October 8, 2019
William Chin

weekly update

William’s Weekly Economic Recap
for the Week of September 30 – October 4, 2019 (view as PDF)

William Chin Head shot
William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.
William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).
William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

Macro Update
  • Uncertainties over trade and global growth continued to dominate economic data released last week. Most major economies are still feeling the drag posed by uncertainties towards trade, which severely hampered business decisions and investment spending.
  • The World Trade Organization estimated that the volume of merchandise trade will increase by 1.2% this year and 2.7% next year, after a 3.0% advance in 2018. World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have similar estimates.
  • U.S. ISM (Institute for Supply Management) ‘manufacturing purchasing managers’ index’ fell to 47.8 from 49.1 prior (readings below 50.0 signal contraction). The non-manufacturing index fell to 52.6 from 56.4 prior; it was the lowest reading in 3 years.
  • U.S. August factory orders fell 0.1%. The important ‘nondefense excluding aircrafts’ component (the best proxy for business capital spending) fell 0.4%.
  • U.S. August exports rose 0.2%; imports rose 0.5%.
  • The U.S. September employment report showed better -than-feared job growth, and generally tame wage growth. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, last reached last in December 1969.
  • Canada manufacturing ‘purchasing managers’ index’ improved to 51.1 (prior 49.1).
  • Canada July GDP flat, versus a 0.2% increase in June. Construction, manufacturing and ‘mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction’ all fell.
  • Canada August exports rose 1.8%; imports rose 1.0%.
  • Eurozone services purchasing managers’ index softer at 51.6.
  • Eurozone August retail sales rose 0.3%, a nice recovery from the 0.5% decline in July.
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Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

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