The Week of April 5 – April 9, 2021

Macro Update

• Canada March unemployment rate fell to 7.5%, from 8.2% in February. The economy gained 303,100 jobs, versus the 259,200 gained in February. The ‘participation rate’ rose to 65.2% from 64.7% in February. It is a strong report. However, its strength might be short-lived.
• CBC News – “Much of Canada is in the grips of a worsening third wave as COVID-19 vaccinations slowly ramp up, and experts say the spread of more contagious coronavirus variants is throwing gasoline on an already-raging fire.”
• Canada February imports -2.4% month over month; exports -2.7% month over month.
• President Biden “set to announce he’s moving deadline for all U.S. adults to be eligible for COVID vaccine to April 19.” – CNN.
• “EU Projects Near-Virus Immunity by End-June, Beating Its Target.” – Bloomberg.
• U.S. weekly jobless claims rose to 744,000 versus 680,000 estimated, and versus 728,000 in prior week.
• U.S. March ‘producer price index’ (“PPI”) +1.0% month over month, versus +0.5% month over month in February. Year over year increase was 4.2%, a result of comparisons against depressed readings in March last year, as the pandemic hit. Core PPI +0.7% month over month, versus +0.2% month over month in February. Year over year +3.1%.
• Eurozone Markit March ‘purchasing managers’ Composite Index (“PMI”) improved to 53.2 from 52.5 prior.
• Eurozone February unemployment rate 8.3% versus 8.3% in January (revised up from 8.1%).
• In a disappointing report, Japan February household spending -6.6% year over year, versus -6.1% year over year in January.
• Rising tensions between U.S., along with its allies; and China, could restrain risk appetite (U.S. blacklisting Chinese companies, military incidences in the Taiwan Strait).

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell North American Fund (formerly Caldwell Balanced Fund). He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.

William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).

William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

All data is sourced from Thompson Reuters and Capital IQ as of April 9, 2021 unless otherwise indicated. While believed to be reliable, the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. and its affiliates make no representations or warranty as to its completeness, reliability or accuracy.

Investment involves risk, uncertainty and assumptions. The value of investments rise and fall such that there is a risk you may not recoup your original investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The views expressed herein of those of the portfolio manager and not necessarily those of CIM. Such views, while based on current market conditions and information, are subject to change without notice such that there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from such expectations. The views expressed are an illustration of broader themes and intended to be for general information purposes only. They should not be relied upon nor construed as investment advice. Readers are expected to consult with their investment advisor for advice specific to their circumstances before making investment decisions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results as they involve uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.