The Week of April 6, 2020 – April 10, 2020

Macro Update

• Last week the Federal Reserve launched another US$2.3 trillion in programs to support households, employers (especially small businesses) and state and local governments. Fed Chair Powell: “We will continue to use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery.”
• U.S. weekly jobless claims surged to 6.6 million. To put these numbers in perspective, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at one point estimated up to 49 million job losses for the U.S. (30% unemployment rate for the 164 million in the labour force), using what it called a “back-of-the-envelope” estimate, likely during the height of fear.
• Canada lost over 1 million jobs in March. Prime Minister Trudeau announced that there were more than 2 million employment claims filed.
• The Bank of Canada’s ‘Business Outlook Survey’ Index for Spring 2020 fell to -0.7 from +0.8 in Winter 2019. The Survey was conducted in early March and does not fully reflect the current situation, and the fullness of fiscal and monetary responses.
• CNBC: “U.S. health officials have been fast-tracking work with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine to prevent COVID-19. They began their first human trials on a potential vaccine March 16.”
  Scott Gottlieb, former Commissioner of the FDA (2017 – 2019) tweeted, “There are perhaps 4-6 drugs that could be available by Fall and have robust enough treatment effect to impact risk of another epidemic or large outbreaks after current COVID-19 wave passes. We should be placing policy bets on these likeliest opportunities.”
• Progress in the fight against the virus spread (flattening the curve) means more clarity in the ability of the healthcare system to bring it under control. At the same time, advances in medical research provides us a clearer ‘schedule’ and the time required before returning to normal. Risk assets are on better footing this past week, and that lent support to the Canadian dollar.

On Thursday, OPEC members and other major energy powers ended with a tentative deal to reduce production by 10 million barrels per day in May and June. However, according to various estimates, demand destruction is anywhere between 20 million to 30 million barrels per day.

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.

William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).

William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

Investment involves risk, uncertainty and assumptions. The value of investments rise and fall and there is a risk you may not recoup the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 

The contents of this blog are the personal views of the author and not necessarily the views of Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. The views expressed, while based on current market conditions and information, they are subject to change without notice and as such, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from such expectations. The comments are an illustration of broader themes and intended to be for general information purposes only. 

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results as they involve uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. 

The contents are provided as general in nature and should not be relied upon nor construed to be the rendering of specific tax, legal, accounting or professional investment advice. Readers should consult with their own accountants, lawyers and/or financial advisors for advice on their specific circumstances before taking any action. 

The information contained herein is from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representations or warranty, expressed or implied is made by Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. or its affiliates.