The Week of November 2 – November 6, 2020

Macro Update

• The removal of uncertainties after the U.S. Election witnessed a resurgence in risk appetite and thus removing the safe haven demand for U.S. dollars. Along with other major currencies, the Canadian dollar rallied. The commitment by the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep monetary stimulus plentiful is also a bullish backdrop.
• The optimism in financial markets might not be shared by the economy, as case counts continue to rise, followed by increasing restrictions. Putting away short-term market factors, the timing for a full global recovery is becoming more difficult to pin down. Due to rising case counts, various measures of mobility have flat-lined in the U.S. and they have started to decline in parts of Europe.
• ‘Purchasing managers’ indices’ released last week for most major economies showed improvement in manufacturing, but services have leveled off, largely due to the recent resurgence in case counts.
• Various regions/countries in Europe have to impose restrictions again due to rising case counts, hurting their economies.
• The U.S. also has rising case counts, but mostly due to more testing. However, hospitalized and death numbers are creeping up. More comforting is that the percentage of daily COVID-19 tests that are positive, is only slightly higher. U.S. … mobility has stalled though and restaurant reservations have recently fallen
• In October, Canada added 83,600 jobs, versus an increase of 378,200 in September. The unemployment rate 8.9% vs. 9.0% prior. The ‘labour force participation rate’ improved to 65.2% vs. 65.0% prior.
• U.S. October ‘nonfarm payrolls’ grew by 638,000 versus 672,000 in prior month. The unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2% prior. The ‘labour force participation rate’ improved to 61.7% versus 61.4% prior. Worrying sign from October jobs report … long-term unemployed (out of work for at least 27 weeks) increased by 1.15 million to 3.56 million
• U.S. September factory orders +1.1% vs. +0.6% in prior month (revised down).
• October U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales came in at 16.2 million SAAR (Seasonally adjusted annual rate), the first month-to-month decline since April.

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.

William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).

William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

All data is sourced from Thompson Reuters and Capital IQ as of November 6, 2020 unless otherwise indicated. While believed to be reliable, the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. and its affiliates make no representations or warranty as to its completeness, reliability or accuracy.

Investment involves risk, uncertainty and assumptions. The value of investments rise and fall such that there is a risk you may not recoup your original investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The views expressed herein of those of the portfolio manager and not necessarily those of CIM. Such views, while based on current market conditions and information, are subject to change without notice such that there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from such expectations. The views expressed are an illustration of broader themes and intended to be for general information purposes only. They should not be relied upon nor construed as investment advice. Readers are expected to consult with their investment advisor for advice specific to their circumstances before making investment decisions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results as they involve uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.