The Week of November 23 – November 27, 2020

Macro Update

• Last week’s calendar was sprinkled with Purchasing Managers’ Indices (“PMIs”). For the U.S., survey firm Markit reported rising confidence, but others, including a number of regional Federal Reserve indices, are showing declines.
• U.S. initial, weekly jobless claims increased to 778,000 in the week ended Nov. 21, from 748,000 prior. It is the largest increase in five weeks and the first back-to-back increases since July.
• At the same time, consumer confidence in the U.S. fell for the second consecutive month in November amid higher number of case counts, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index slipped to 96.1 in November (a miss) from an upwardly revised 101.4 in October. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected the index to fall to 98.0.
• Not surprisingly, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 76.9 from 81.8 prior.
• U.S. October personal income -0.7% vs. +0.7% prior, as the number of case counts rose and government benefits ran out. Personal spending +0.5% vs. +1.2% prior. The core personal consumption expenditure’ (“PCE”) price deflator – the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge – came in flat vs. +0.2% prior.
• Perhaps, one can look across the pond for further guidance, since Europe was ahead of North America in this wave. According to Germany’s leading research institute Information and Forschung (“IFO”), sentiment among German managers has deteriorated. The IFO Business Climate Index fell from 92.5 points in October to 90.7 points in November.”
• U.S. housing price index +1.7% month over month, vs +1.5% month over month prior. These are very large gains. On a year over year basis, S&P/Case Shiller’s 20-city housing price index +6.6% year over year, from +5.3% prior.
• U.S. October new home sales -0.3% vs. +0.1% prior, taking a breather.
• U.S. October durable goods orders +1.3% vs. +2.1% in prior month. The important ‘nondefence capital goods orders excluding aircrafts’ (the best proxy for business capital spending) +0.7% vs. +1.9% prior.
• Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has been picked by Joe Biden to be his Treasury Secretary. Going forward, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will have many common links. Some might worry about the level of independence of the Federal Reserve from the Administration.

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell North American Fund (formerly Caldwell Balanced Fund). He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.

William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).

William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

All data is sourced from Thompson Reuters and Capital IQ as of November 27, 2020 unless otherwise indicated. While believed to be reliable, the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. and its affiliates make no representations or warranty as to its completeness, reliability or accuracy.

Investment involves risk, uncertainty and assumptions. The value of investments rise and fall such that there is a risk you may not recoup your original investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The views expressed herein of those of the portfolio manager and not necessarily those of CIM. Such views, while based on current market conditions and information, are subject to change without notice such that there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from such expectations. The views expressed are an illustration of broader themes and intended to be for general information purposes only. They should not be relied upon nor construed as investment advice. Readers are expected to consult with their investment advisor for advice specific to their circumstances before making investment decisions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results as they involve uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.