The Week of November 9 – November 13, 2020

Macro Update

• Positive news on vaccine development last Monday triggered large rallies in traditional, or ‘old economy’ stocks (Visa and Mastercard, for example), and declines in the ‘new economy’ stocks (‘stay at home’, or ‘cocooning’ stocks) that were favoured when the economy would be placed under restrictions (Netflix, Amazon, for example). 
• According to CBC News- “Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday that their vaccine candidate against COVID-19 has shown promising preliminary results in Phase 3 clinical trials. The vaccine is one of several that have been preordered by the Canadian government.” 
• There are logistic issues to overcome, but the news regarding the vaccine is badly needed for confidence. The U.S. National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index flattened out at 104.0 when compared to the previous release. Small businesses account for roughly half of the jobs in the U.S.  
• We might have to be prepared for weaker data ahead. High-frequency data tracking mobility, Internet searches and bookings are turning lower in Europe, which leads the U.S. and Canada in terms of resurgence in case counts.
• Germany’s November economic sentiment survey’s ‘current situation index’ deteriorated to -64.3 from -59.5 in October. Rising case counts and restrictions are the obvious factors. Confidence measures also weakened across the Eurozone.
• U.S. retail foot traffic tracked by Unacast and Safegraph, and restaurant seatings tracked by booking site Open Table are rolling over.
• University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index fell to 77.0 from 81.8 prior, likely a reflection of leveling off in the recovery.
• From ‘The Hill’ – “Biden COVID-19 adviser floats plan to pay for national lockdown lasting up to six weeks.”
• Bloomberg – “U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order barring American investments in Chinese firms owned or controlled by the military.”
• U.S. October producer price index (“PPI”) eased to +0.3% month over month vs +0.4% in September; core +0.1% vs +0.4% month over month prior.
• U.S. October consumer price index (“CPI”) flat month over month versus +0.2% in September; core also came in flat vs +0.2% month over month prior.
• China CPI slipped to -0.3% from +0.2% prior, month over month. PPI unchanged at -2.1% month over month.

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell North American Fund (formerly Caldwell Balanced Fund). He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.

William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).

William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

All data is sourced from Thompson Reuters and Capital IQ as of November 13, 2020 unless otherwise indicated. While believed to be reliable, the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. and its affiliates make no representations or warranty as to its completeness, reliability or accuracy.

Investment involves risk, uncertainty and assumptions. The value of investments rise and fall such that there is a risk you may not recoup your original investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The views expressed herein of those of the portfolio manager and not necessarily those of CIM. Such views, while based on current market conditions and information, are subject to change without notice such that there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from such expectations. The views expressed are an illustration of broader themes and intended to be for general information purposes only. They should not be relied upon nor construed as investment advice. Readers are expected to consult with their investment advisor for advice specific to their circumstances before making investment decisions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results as they involve uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.