The Week of June 15 – June 19, 2020

Macro Update

• Economic fundamentals, after the recent plunge, have been unable to stage a robust recovery.
• For the week ending June 13, 2020, U.S. ‘weekly initial jobless claims’ came in at 1,510,000, versus 1,570,000 in the prior week. The latest data on ‘continuing claims’, as of June 6, 2020, remained elevated at 20,500,000.
• Reuters monthly Japan Tankan Manufacturers Index for June -46 (down further from -44 in May). Non Manufacturers Index -32 (from -36 prior). Japan is one of the more successful countries in coping with the pandemic and is a month or two ahead of the U.S. and Canada.
• U.K. May retail sales +12.0%; following -18.0% in April.
• Canada April retail sales -26.4%; following -10.0% in March. Statistics Canada’s early estimate for May retail sales is +19.1%.
• Canada May Consumer Price Index +0.3%; core -0.1%.
• Canada Teranet May house price index +1.1% month over month vs +1.3% prior. Depending on the segment, volumes could be down significantly.
• As noted in the latest Monetary Policy Report from the Federal Reserve: “Lending standards for both households and businesses have become less accommodative, borrowing conditions are tight for low-rated households and businesses.” Also, “Financial-sector vulnerabilities are expected to be significant in the near term.” To this, the Federal Reserve is launching a ‘Main Street lending program’.
• One bright spot is U.S. housing. May housing starts +4.3%; building permits +14.4%; largely consistent with the improvement seen in the National Association of Home Builders market activity index, which rose from 37 to 58. There was also a surge in mortgage applications.
• The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development noted that, global ‘foreign direct investment’ is forecast to fall 40% this year, to the lowest level since 2005.
• According to a survey of executives of multinationals, up to 30 percent, or US$750 billion, of China’s US$2.5 trillion of exports might be relocated.
• Apart from falling foreign direct investments, the collapse in global trade will also significantly hurt China. Exports are almost 20% of China’s GDP.

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell Balanced Fund. He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.

William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).

William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

All data is sourced from Thompson Reuters and Capital IQ as of June 19, 2020 unless otherwise indicated. While believed to be reliable, the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. and its affiliates make no representations or warranty as to its completeness, reliability or accuracy.

Investment involves risk, uncertainty and assumptions. The value of investments rise and fall such that there is a risk you may not recoup your original investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The views expressed herein of those of the portfolio manager and not necessarily those of CIM. Such views, while based on current market conditions and information, are subject to change without notice such that there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from such expectations. The views expressed are an illustration of broader themes and intended to be for general information purposes only. They should not be relied upon nor construed as investment advice. Readers are expected to consult with their investment advisor for advice specific to their circumstances before making investment decisions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results as they involve uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.