The Week of March 29 – April 2, 2021

Macro Update

• President Biden’s new, proposed infrastructure plan received plenty of press last week. The size could range anywhere from $2.00 trillion to $2.25 trillion. To fund it, tax increases were being discussed as well, anywhere from $1.80 trillion to $2.00 trillion; all depending on different reports from various sources.
• Bloomberg – “Pelosi seeks house passage of infrastructure, jobs by July 4.”
• U.S. March ‘nonfarm payrolls’ +916,000, much higher than +468,000 in February. Cumulative revisions to January and February was +156,000, adding to the strength of the hiring situation. However, the recovery was mostly seen in jobs with lower wages, as the ‘average hourly earnings’ -0.1% month over month, after a +0.3% month over month gain in February. ‘Average weekly hours’ extended from 34.6 hours to 34.9 hours. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0%, from 6.2% in February; as the ‘labour force participation rate’ improved to 61.5% from 61.4% in February.
• U.S. March consumer confidence index improved to 109.7 from 91.3; but it is still significantly below the pre-pandemic reading of 132.0.
• Canada January Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) +0.7% month over month, versus +0.1% in December. Strength was impressive but uneven. Service and hospitality sectors were the obvious laggards. ‘Transportation and warehousing’ showed a decline, likely due to bottlenecks.
• Canada February industrial product prices +2.6%, versus +2.0% in January.
• Eurozone March preliminary Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) +1.1% year over year, versus +0.9% year over year in February. Core CPI eased to +0.9% year over year versus +1.1% year over year in February. Core inflation remained tame.
• China March manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (“PMI”) came in at 51.9, from 50.6 in February. March non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.3, from 51.4 in February.
• Eurozone March consumer confidence index steady at -10.8. Economic sentiment indicator improved to 101.0 from 93.4.

William Chin, MBA

Portfolio Manager & Chief Technical Analyst

William Chin, Chief Technical Analyst for Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. (“Caldwell”), is the lead Portfolio Manager on the Tactical Sovereign Bond Fund and Portfolio Manager for the fixed income portion of the Caldwell North American Fund (formerly Caldwell Balanced Fund). He also advises fixed income portfolios for affiliate Caldwell Securities Ltd.’s separately managed account platform and contributes to the Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. team’s research, specializing in macro-economics, currency risk management and technical analysis. William is a member of Caldwell’s Investment Risk Committee.

William has over 35 years of international investment experience in the areas of portfolio, currency risk and treasury management. He began his career in the currency market, progressing to the role of treasury manager for a large international bank. He was first registered as a Portfolio Manager with the Ontario Securities Commission in 1999 and managed high net worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis prior to joining Caldwell.
William has an MBA in economics and international finance. He has been a volunteer and a board member for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts since 2001 and is their former President (2012-2014).

William is a frequent speaker on macro analysis, monetary policy and technical analysis.

All data is sourced from Thompson Reuters and Capital IQ as of April 2, 2021 unless otherwise indicated. While believed to be reliable, the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. and its affiliates make no representations or warranty as to its completeness, reliability or accuracy.

Investment involves risk, uncertainty and assumptions. The value of investments rise and fall such that there is a risk you may not recoup your original investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The views expressed herein of those of the portfolio manager and not necessarily those of CIM. Such views, while based on current market conditions and information, are subject to change without notice such that there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from such expectations. The views expressed are an illustration of broader themes and intended to be for general information purposes only. They should not be relied upon nor construed as investment advice. Readers are expected to consult with their investment advisor for advice specific to their circumstances before making investment decisions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results as they involve uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.